Influence of Filter Pore Size on Composition and Relative Abundance of Bacterial Communities and Select Host-Specific MST Markers in Coastal Waters of Southern Lake Michigan.

Water clarity is often the primary guiding factor in determining whether a prefiltration step is needed to increase volumes processed for a range of microbial endpoints. In this study, we evaluate the effect of filter pore size on the bacterial communities detected by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and incidence of two host-specific microbial source tracking (MST) markers in a range of coastal waters from southern Lake Michigan, using two independent data sets collected in 2015 (bacterial communities) and 2016-2017 (MST markers). Water samples were collected from river, shoreline, and offshore areas. For bacterial communities, each sample was filtered through a 5.0-µm filter, followed by filtration through a 0.22-µm filter, resulting in 70 and 143 filter pairs for bacterial communities and MST markers, respectively. Following DNA extraction, the bacterial communities were compared using 16S rRNA gene amplicons of the V3-V4 region sequenced on a MiSeq Illumina platform. Presence of human (Bacteroides HF183) and gull (Gull2, Catellicoccus marimammalium) host-specific MST markers were detected by qPCR. Actinobacteriota, Bacteroidota, and Proteobacteria, collectively represented 96.9% and 93.9% of the relative proportion of all phyla in the 0.22- and 5.0-µm pore size filters, respectively. There were more families detected in the 5.0-µm pore size filter (368) than the 0.22-µm (228). There were significant differences in the number of taxa between the two filter sizes at all levels of taxonomic classification according to linear discriminant analysis (LDA) effect size (LEfSe) with as many as 986 taxa from both filter sizes at LDA effect sizes greater than 2.0. Overall, the Gull2 marker was found in higher abundance on the 5.0-µm filter than 0.22 µm with the reverse pattern for the HF183 marker. This discrepancy could lead to problems with identifying microbial sources of contamination. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of analyzing pre- and final filters for a wide range of microbial endpoints, including host-specific MST markers routinely used in water quality monitoring programs. Analysis of both filters may increase costs but provides more complete genomic data via increased sample volume for characterizing microbial communities in coastal waters.

Sequestration of microfibers and other microplastics by green algae, Cladophora, in the US Great Lakes.

Daunting amounts of microplastics are present in surface waters worldwide. A main category of microplastics is synthetic microfibers, which originate from textiles. These microplastics are generated and released in laundering and are discharged by wastewater treatment plants or enter surface waters from other sources. The polymers that constitute many common synthetic microfibers are mostly denser than water, and eventually settle out in aquatic environments. The interaction of these microfibers with submerged aquatic vegetation has not been thoroughly investigated but is potentially an important aquatic sink in surface waters. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, prolific growth of macrophytic Cladophora creates submerged biomass with a large amount of surface area and the potential to collect and concentrate microplastics. To determine the number of synthetic microfibers in Great Lakes Cladophora, samples were collected from Lakes Erie and Michigan at multiple depths in the spring and summer of 2018. After rinsing and processing the algae, associated synthetic microfibers were quantified. The average loads of synthetic microfibers determined from the Lake Erie and Lake Michigan samples were 32,000 per kg (dry weight (dw)) and 34,000 per kg (dw), respectively, 2-4 orders of magnitude greater than loads previously reported in water and sediment. To further explore this sequestration of microplastics, fresh and aged Cladophora were mixed with aqueous mixtures of microfibers or microplastic in the laboratory to simulate pollution events. Microscopic analyses indicated that fresh Cladophora algae readily interacted with microplastics via adsorptive forces and physical entanglement. These interactions mostly cease upon algal senescence, with an expected release of microplastics in benthic sediments. Collectively, these findings suggest that synthetic microfibers are widespread in Cladophora algae and the affinity between microplastics and Cladophora may offer insights for removing microplastic pollution. Macroalgae in the Laurentian Great Lakes contain high loads of synthetic microfibers, both entangled and adsorbed, which likely account for an important fraction of microplastics in these surface waters.

Evaluating the impacts of foreshore sand and birds on microbiological contamination at a freshwater beach.

Beaches along the Great Lakes shorelines are important recreational and economic resources. However, contamination at the beaches can threaten their usage during the swimming season, potentially resulting in beach closures and/or advisories. Thus, understanding the dynamics that control nearshore water quality is integral to effective beach management. There have been significant improvements in this effort, including incorporating modeling (empirical, mechanistic) in recent years. Mechanistic modeling frameworks can contribute to this understanding of dynamics by determining sources and interactions that substantially impact fecal indicator bacteria concentrations, an index routinely used in water quality monitoring programs. To simulate E. coli concentrations at Jeorse Park beaches in southwest Lake Michigan, a coupled hydrodynamic and wave-current interaction model was developed that progressively added contaminant sources from river inputs, avian presence, bacteria-sediment interactions, and bacteria-sand-sediment interactions. Results indicated that riverine inputs affected E. coli concentrations at Jeorse Park beaches only marginally, while avian, shoreline sand, and sediment sources were much more substantial drivers of E. coli contamination at the beach. By including avian and riverine inputs, as well as bacteria-sand-sediment interactions at the beach, models can reasonably capture the variability in observed E. coli concentrations in nearshore water and bed sediments at Jeorse Park beaches. Consequently, it will be crucial to consider avian contamination sources and water-sand-sediment interactions in effective management of the beach for public health and as a recreational resource and to extend these findings to similar beaches affected by shoreline embayment.

Influence of sediment and stream transport on detecting a source of environmental DNA.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) can be used for early detection, population estimations, and assessment of potential spread of invasive species, but questions remain about factors that influence eDNA detection results. Efforts are being made to understand how physical, chemical, and biological factors-settling, resuspension, dispersion, eDNA stability/decay-influence eDNA estimations and potentially population abundance. In a series of field and controlled mesocosm experiments, we examined the detection and accumulation of eDNA in sediment and water and the transport of eDNA in a small stream in the Lake Michigan watershed, using the invasive round goby fish (Neogobius melanostomus) as a DNA source. Experiment 1: caged fish (average n = 44) were placed in a stream devoid of round goby; water was collected over 24 hours along 120-m of stream, including a simultaneous sampling event at 7 distances from DNA source; stream monitoring continued for 24 hours after fish were removed. Experiment 2: round goby were placed in laboratory tanks; water and sediment were collected over 14 days and for another 150 days post-fish removal to calculate eDNA shedding and decay rates for water and sediment. For samples from both experiments, DNA was extracted, and qPCR targeted a cytochrome oxidase I gene (COI) fragment specific to round goby. Results indicated that eDNA accumulated and decayed more slowly in sediment than water. In the stream, DNA shedding was markedly lower than calculated in the laboratory, but models indicate eDNA could potentially travel long distances (up to 50 km) under certain circumstances. Collectively, these findings show that the interactive effects of ambient conditions (e.g., eDNA stability and decay, hydrology, settling-resuspension) are important to consider when developing comprehensive models. Results of this study can help resource managers target representative sites downstream of potential invasion sites, thereby maximizing resource use.

Interaction of bacterial communities and indicators of water quality in shoreline sand, sediment, and water of Lake Michigan.

Shoreline sand harbors high concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) that may be resuspended into the water column through washing and resuspension. Studies have explored coastal processes that influence this sand-water flux for FIB, but little is known about how microbial markers of contamination or the bacterial community interact in the sand-water interface. In this study, we take a three-tiered approach to explore the relationship between bacteria in sand, sediment, and overlying water at three shoreline sites and two associated rivers along an extended freshwater shoreline. Samples were collected over two years and analyzed for FIB, two microbial source tracking (MST) markers (Catellicoccus marimammalium, Gull2; Bacteroides HF183), and targeted metagenomic 16S rRNA gene analysis. FIB was much higher in sand than in water at all three sites. Gull2 marker was abundant in shoreline sand and water while HF183 marker was mostly present in rivers. Overall bacterial communities were dissimilar between sand/sediment and water, indicating little interaction. Sediment composition was generally unfavorable to bacterial resuspension. Results show that FIB and MST markers were effective estimates of short-term conditions at these locations, and bacterial communities in sand and sediment reflected longer-term conditions. Findings are useful for locating contamination sources and targeting restoration by evaluating scope of shoreline degradation.

Bacterial Community 16S rRNA Gene Sequencing Characterizes Riverine Microbial Impact on Lake Michigan.

Restoration of degraded aquatic habitats is critical to preserve and maintain ecosystem processes and economic viability. Effective restoration requires contaminant sources identification. Microbial communities are increasingly used to characterize fecal contamination sources. The objective was to determine whether nearshore and adjacent beach bacterial contamination originated from the Grand Calumet River, a highly urbanized aquatic ecosystem, and to determine if there were correlations between pathogens/feces associated bacteria in any of the samples to counts of the pathogen indicator species Escherichia coli. Water samples were collected from the river, river mouth, nearshore, and offshore sites along southern Lake Michigan. Comparisons among communities were made using beta diversity distances (weighted and unweighted Unifrac, and Bray Curtis) and Principal Coordinate Analysis of 16S rRNA gene Illumina sequence data that indicated river bacterial communities differed significantly from the river mouth, nearshore lake, and offshore lake samples. These differences were further supported using Source Tracker software that indicated nearshore lake communities differed significantly from river and offshore samples. Among locations, there was separation by sampling date that was associated with environmental factors (e.g., water and air temperature, water turbidity). Although about half the genera (48.1%) were common to all sampling sites, linear discriminant analysis effect size indicated there were several taxa that differed significantly among sites; there were significant positive correlations of feces-associated genera with E. coli most probable numbers. Results collectively highlight that understanding microbial communities, rather than relying solely on select fecal indicators with uncertain origin, are more useful for developing strategies to restore degraded aquatic habitats.

Real-Time Water Quality Monitoring at a Great Lakes National Park.

Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used by the USEPA to establish new recreational water quality criteria in 2012 using the indicator bacteria enterococci. The application of this method has been limited, but resource managers are interested in more timely monitoring results. In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of qPCR as a rapid, alternative method to the time-consuming membrane filtration (MF) method for monitoring water at select beaches and rivers of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore in Empire, MI. Water samples were collected from four locations (Esch Road Beach, Otter Creek, Platte Point Bay, and Platte River outlet) in 2014 and analyzed for culture-based (MF) and non-culture-based (i.e., qPCR) endpoints using and enterococci bacteria. The MF and qPCR enterococci results were significantly, positively correlated overall ( = 0.686, < 0.0001, = 98) and at individual locations as well, except at the Platte River outlet location: Esch Road Beach ( = 0.441, = 0.031, = 24), Otter Creek ( = 0.592, = 0.002, = 24), and Platte Point Bay ( = 0.571, = 0.004, = 24). Similarly, MF and qPCR results were significantly, positively correlated ( = 0.469, < 0.0001, = 95), overall but not at individual locations. Water quality standard exceedances based on enterococci levels by qPCR were lower than by MF method: 3 and 16, respectively. Based on our findings, we conclude that qPCR may be a viable alternative to the culture-based method for monitoring water quality on public lands. Rapid, same-day results are achievable by the qPCR method, which greatly improves protection of the public from water-related illnesses.

Identifying and Eliminating Sources of Recreational Water Quality Degradation along an Urban Coast.

Restoration of highly degraded urban coastal waters often requires large-scale, complex projects, but in the interim, smaller-scale efforts can provide immediate improvements to water quality conditions for visitor use. We examined short-term efforts to improve recreational water quality near the Grand Calumet River (GC) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Identified as an Area of Concern (AOC) by the International Joint Commission, the GC has experienced years of industrial and municipal waste discharges, and as a result, coastal beaches have some of the highest rates of beach closings (>70%) in the United States. Project objectives were to identify sources of microbial contamination and to evaluate a short-term management solution to decrease beach closings: during 2015 (partial) and 2016 (season-long), canines were used to deter gull presence. Water samples were analyzed for in 2015 and 2016, and fecal sources were evaluated using microbial source tracking markers (2015): human ( HF183, ), gull (Gull2), and dog (DogBact). Hydrometeorological conditions were simultaneously measured. Results indicated that human, gull, and canine fecal sources were present, with gulls being the dominant source. densities were highly correlated with number of gulls present, Gull2 marker, and turbidity. Gull deterrence decreased and Gull2 marker detection during 2015, but numbers rebounded after program completion. The full-season program in 2016 resulted in lower densities and fewer beach closings. Large-scale restoration efforts are underway at this location, but short-term, small-scale projects can be useful for reducing beach closings and restoring ecosystem services.

Real-Time Nowcasting of Microbiological Water Quality at Recreational Beaches: A Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network-Based Hybrid Modeling Approach.

The number of beach closings caused by bacterial contamination has continued to rise in recent years, putting beachgoers at risk of exposure to contaminated water. Current approaches predict levels of indicator bacteria using regression models containing a number of explanatory variables. Data-based modeling approaches can supplement routine monitoring data and provide highly accurate short-term forecasts of beach water quality. In this paper, we apply the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) method with explanatory variables to predict Escherichia coli concentrations at four Lake Michigan beach sites. We also apply the nonlinear input-output network (NIO) and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) methods in addition to a hybrid wavelet-NAR (WA-NAR) model and demonstrate their application. All models were tested using 3 months of observed data. Results revealed that the NARX models provided the best performance and that the WA-NAR model, which requires no explanatory variables, outperformed the NIO and NAR models; therefore, the WA-NAR model is suitable for application to data scarce regions. The models proposed in this paper were evaluated using multiple performance metrics, including sensitivity and specificity measures, and produced results comparable or superior to those of previous mechanistic and statistical models developed for the same beach sites. The relatively high R2 values between data and the NARX models ( R2 values of ∼0.8 for the beach sites and ∼0.9 for the river site) indicate that the new class of models shows promise for beach management.

Environmental DNA (eDNA): A tool for quantifying the abundant but elusive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus).

Environmental DNA (eDNA) is revolutionizing biodiversity monitoring, occupancy estimates, and real-time detections of invasive species. In the Great Lakes, the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive benthic fish from the Black Sea, has spread to encompass all five lakes and many tributaries, outcompeting or consuming native species; however, estimates of round goby abundance are confounded by behavior and habitat preference, which impact reliable methods for estimating their population. By integrating eDNA into round goby monitoring, improved estimates of biomass may be obtainable. We conducted mesocosm experiments to estimate rates of goby DNA shedding and decay. Further, we compared eDNA with several methods of traditional field sampling to compare its use as an alternative/complementary monitoring method. Environmental DNA decay was comparable to other fish species, and first-order decay was lower at 12°C (k = 0.043) than at 19°C (k = 0.058). Round goby eDNA was routinely detected in known invaded sites of Lake Michigan and its tributaries (range log10 4.8-6.2 CN/L), but not upstream of an artificial fish barrier. Traditional techniques (mark-recapture, seining, trapping) in Lakes Michigan and Huron resulted in fewer, more variable detections than eDNA, but trapping and eDNA were correlated (Pearson R = 0.87). Additional field testing will help correlate round goby abundance with eDNA, providing insight on its role as a prey fish and its impact on food webs.

Comparative Evaluation of Statistical and Mechanistic Models of Escherichia coli at Beaches in Southern Lake Michigan.

Statistical and mechanistic models are popular tools for predicting the levels of indicator bacteria at recreational beaches. Researchers tend to use one class of model or the other, and it is difficult to generalize statements about their relative performance due to differences in how the models are developed, tested, and used. We describe a cooperative modeling approach for freshwater beaches impacted by point sources in which insights derived from mechanistic modeling were used to further improve the statistical models and vice versa. The statistical models provided a basis for assessing the mechanistic models which were further improved using probability distributions to generate high-resolution time series data at the source, long-term "tracer" transport modeling based on observed electrical conductivity, better assimilation of meteorological data, and the use of unstructured-grids to better resolve nearshore features. This approach resulted in improved models of comparable performance for both classes including a parsimonious statistical model suitable for real-time predictions based on an easily measurable environmental variable (turbidity). The modeling approach outlined here can be used at other sites impacted by point sources and has the potential to improve water quality predictions resulting in more accurate estimates of beach closures.

Prototypic automated continuous recreational water quality monitoring of nine Chicago beaches.

Predictive empirical modeling is used in many locations worldwide as a rapid, alternative recreational water quality management tool to eliminate delayed notifications associated with traditional fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) culturing (referred to as the persistence model, PM) and to prevent errors in releasing swimming advisories. The goal of this study was to develop a fully automated water quality management system for multiple beaches using predictive empirical models (EM) and state-of-the-art technology. Many recent EMs rely on samples or data collected manually, which adds to analysis time and increases the burden to the beach manager. In this study, data from water quality buoys and weather stations were transmitted through cellular telemetry to a web hosting service. An executable program simultaneously retrieved and aggregated data for regression equations and calculated EM results each morning at 9:30 AM; results were transferred through RSS feed to a website, mapped to each beach, and received by the lifeguards to be posted at the beach. Models were initially developed for five beaches, but by the third year, 21 beaches were managed using refined and validated modeling systems. The adjusted R(2) of the regressions relating Escherichia coli to hydrometeorological variables for the EMs were greater than those for the PMs, and ranged from 0.220 to 0.390 (2011) and 0.103 to 0.381 (2012). Validation results in 2013 revealed reduced predictive capabilities; however, three of the originally modeled beaches showed improvement in 2013 compared to 2012. The EMs generally showed higher accuracy and specificity than those of the PMs, and sensitivity was low for both approaches. In 2012 EM accuracy was 70-97%; specificity, 71-100%; and sensitivity, 0-64% and in 2013 accuracy was 68-97%; specificity, 73-100%; and sensitivity 0-36%. Factors that may have affected model capabilities include instrument malfunction, non-point source inputs, and sparse calibration data. The modeling system developed is the most extensive, fully-automated system for recreational water quality developed to date. Key insights for refining and improving large-scale empirical models for beach management have been developed through this multi-year effort.

Recreational water quality response to a filtering barrier at a Great Lakes beach.

Recent research has sought to determine the off- or onshore origin of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in order to improve local recreational water quality. In an effort to reduce offshore contamination, a filtering barrier (FB) was installed at Calumet Beach, Lake Michigan, Chicago, IL. A horseshoe-shaped curtain (146 m long, 0.18 mm apparent opening size, 1.5-1.6 m deepest point) was designed to exclude FIB containing or promoting debris and thus reduce the number of swimming advisories during the examination period of July through September 2012. Mean water Escherichia coli concentrations were significantly lower at southern transects (S; outside FB) than at transects within the FB (WN) and at northern transects (N; outside FB) (1.45 log (MPN)/100 ml vs. 1.74 and 1.72, respectively, p < 0.05, n = 234). Turbidity was significantly higher at the WN transects (p < 0.001, n = 233), but it tended to increase throughout the sampling season within and outside the FB. E. coli in adjacent foreshore sand was significantly lower at the WN transects. A combination of factors might explain higher E. coli and turbidity within the FB including increased sediment resuspension, trapped algae, shallowing within the FB, and large lake hydrodynamic processes. This remediation approach may find better use in a different hydrodynamic setting, but the results of this experiment provide insight on sources of contamination and nearshore dynamics that may direct future beach management strategies.

Choices in recreational water quality monitoring: new opportunities and health risk trade-offs.

With the recent release of new recreational water quality monitoring criteria, there are more options for regulatory agencies seeking to protect beachgoers from waterborne pathogens. Included are methods that can reduce analytical time, providing timelier estimates of water quality, but the application of these methods has not been examined at most beaches for expectation of health risk and management decisions. In this analysis, we explore health and monitoring outcomes expected at Lake Michigan beaches using protocols for indicator bacteria including culturable Escherichia coli (E. coli; EC), culturable enterococci (ENT), and enterococci as analyzed by qPCR (QENT). Correlations between method results were generally high, except at beaches with historically high concentrations of EC. The "beach action value" was exceeded most often when using EC or ENT as the target indicator; QENT exceeded the limit far less frequently. Measured water quality between years was varied. Although methods with equivalent health expectation have been established, the lack of relationship among method outcomes and annual changes in mean indicator bacteria concentrations complicates the decision-making process. The monitoring approach selected by beach managers may be a combination of available tools that maximizes timely health protection, cost efficiency, and collaboration among beach jurisdictions.

Enterococci in the environment.

Enterococci are common, commensal members of gut communities in mammals and birds, yet they are also opportunistic pathogens that cause millions of human and animal infections annually. Because they are shed in human and animal feces, are readily culturable, and predict human health risks from exposure to polluted recreational waters, they are used as surrogates for waterborne pathogens and as fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in research and in water quality testing throughout the world. Evidence from several decades of research demonstrates, however, that enterococci may be present in high densities in the absence of obvious fecal sources and that environmental reservoirs of these FIB are important sources and sinks, with the potential to impact water quality. This review focuses on the distribution and microbial ecology of enterococci in environmental (secondary) habitats, including the effect of environmental stressors; an outline of their known and apparent sources, sinks, and fluxes; and an overview of the use of enterococci as FIB. Finally, the significance of emerging methodologies, such as microbial source tracking (MST) and empirical predictive models, as tools in water quality monitoring is addressed. The mounting evidence for widespread extraenteric sources and reservoirs of enterococci demonstrates the versatility of the genus Enterococcus and argues for the necessity of a better understanding of their ecology in natural environments, as well as their roles as opportunistic pathogens and indicators of human pathogens.

Wave-induced mass transport affects daily Escherichia coli fluctuations in nearshore water.

Characterization of diel variability of fecal indicator bacteria concentration in nearshore waters is of particular importance for development of water sampling standards and protection of public health. Significant nighttime increase in Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration in beach water, previously observed at marine sites, has also been identified in summer 2000 from fixed locations in waist- and knee-deep waters at Chicago 63rd Street Beach, an embayed, tideless, freshwater beach with low currents at night (approximately 0.015 m s(-1)). A theoretical model using wave-induced mass transport velocity for advection was developed to assess the contribution of surface waves to the observed nighttime E. coli replenishment in the nearshore water. Using average wave conditions for the summer season of year 2000, the model predicted an amount of E. coli transported from water of intermediate depth, where sediment resuspension occurred intermittently, that would be sufficient to have elevated E. coli concentration in the surf and swash zones as observed. The nighttime replenishment of E. coli in the surf and swash zones revealed here is an important phase in the cycle of diel variations of E. coli concentration in nearshore water. According to previous findings in Ge et al. (Environ. Sci. Technol. 2010, 44, 6731-6737), enhanced current circulation in the embayment during the day tends to displace and deposit material offshore, which partially sets up the system by the early evening for a new period of nighttime onshore movement. This wave-induced mass transport effect, although facilitating a significant base supply of material shoreward, can be perturbed or significantly influenced by high currents (orders of magnitude larger than a typical wave-induced mass transport velocity), current-induced turbulence, and tidal forcing.

Beach monitoring criteria: reading the fine print.

Beach monitoring programs aim to decrease swimming-related illnesses resulting from exposure to harmful microbes in recreational waters, while providing maximum beach access. Managers are advised by the U.S. EPA to estimate microbiological water quality based on a 5-day geometric mean of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations or on a jurisdiction-specific single-sample maximum; however, most opt instead to apply a default single-sample maximum to ease application. We examined whether re-evaluation of the U.S. EPA ambient water quality criteria (AWQC) and the epidemiological studies on which they are based could increase public beach access without affecting presumed health risk. Single-sample maxima were calculated using historic monitoring data for 50 beaches along coastal Lake Michigan on various temporal and spatial groupings to assess flexibility in the application of the AWQC. No calculation on either scale was as low as the default maximum (235 CFU/100 mL) that managers typically use, indicating that current applications may be more conservative than the outlined AWQC. It was notable that beaches subject to point source FIB contamination had lower variation, highlighting the bias in the standards for these beaches. Until new water quality standards are promulgated, more site-specific application of the AWQC may benefit beach managers by allowing swimmers greater access to beaches. This issue will be an important consideration in addressing the forthcoming beach monitoring standards.

Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches.

Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R(2)) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

Coastal loading and transport of Escherichia coli at an embayed beach in Lake Michigan.

A Chicago beach in southwest Lake Michigan was revisited to determine the influence of nearshore hydrodynamic effects on the variability of Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration in both knee-deep and offshore waters. Explanatory variables that could be used for identifying potential bacteria loading mechanisms, such as bed shear stress due to a combined wave-current boundary layer and wave runup on the beach surface, were derived from an existing wave and current database. The derived hydrodynamic variables, along with the actual observed E. coli concentrations in the submerged and foreshore sands, were expected to reveal bacteria loading through nearshore sediment resuspension and swash on the beach surface, respectively. Based on the observation that onshore waves tend to result in a more active hydrodynamic system at this embayed beach, multiple linear regression analysis of onshore-wave cases further indicated the significance of sediment resuspension and the interaction of swash with gull-droppings in explaining the variability of E. coli concentration in the knee-deep water. For cases with longshore currents, numerical simulations using the Princeton Ocean Model revealed current circulation patterns inside the embayment, which can effectively entrain bacteria from the swash zone into the central area of the embayed beach water and eventually release them out of the embayment. The embayed circulation patterns are consistent with the statistical results that identified that 1) the submerged sediment was an additional net source of E. coli to the offshore water and 2) variability of E. coli concentration in the knee-deep water contributed adversely to that in the offshore water for longshore-current cases. The embayed beach setting and the statistical and numerical methods used in the present study have wide applicability for analyzing recreational water quality at similar marine and freshwater sites.

Relationship and variation of qPCR and culturable Enterococci estimates in ambient surface waters are predictable.

The quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method provides rapid estimates of fecal indicator bacteria densities that have been indicated to be useful in the assessment of water quality. Primarily because this method provides faster results than standard culture-based methods, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently considering its use as a basis for revised ambient water quality criteria. In anticipation of this possibility, we sought to examine the relationship between qPCR-based and culture-based estimates of enterococci in surface waters. Using data from several research groups, we compared enterococci estimates by the two methods in water samples collected from 37 sites across the United States. A consistent linear pattern in the relationship between cell equivalents (CCE), based on the qPCR method, and colony-forming units (CFU), based on the traditional culturable method, was significant (P < 0.05) at most sites. A linearly decreasing variance of CCE with increasing CFU levels was significant (P < 0.05) or evident for all sites. Both marine and freshwater sites under continuous influence of point-source contamination tended to reveal a relatively constant proportion of CCE to CFU. The consistency in the mean and variance patterns of CCE versus CFU indicates that the relationship of results based on these two methods is more predictable at high CFU levels (e.g., log(10)CFU > 2.0/100 mL) while uncertainty increases at lower CFU values. It was further noted that the relative error in replicated qPCR estimates was generally higher than that in replicated culture counts even at relatively high target levels, suggesting a greater need for replicated analyses in the qPCR method to reduce relative error. Further studies evaluating the relationship between culture and qPCR should take into account analytical uncertainty as well as potential differences in results of these methods that may arise from sample variability, different sources of pollution, and environmental factors.